The Pits
As you might have guessed, Derrek Lee's injury is a terrible, terrible blow for the Chicago Cubs. If the big man went home from the doctor yesterday and cried his eyes out, I wouldn't hold it against him one bit. You could tell that he was really looking forward to 2006, and who could blame him?
The Cubs played really well during the first three weeks. Lee was off to another great start: 10 RBIs, 14 runs, 5 steals, and, at times, mind-bogglingly stellar defense. The pitching held up better than anyone would have expected. When Pierre got on, pitchers and catchers couldn't decide which was a scarier scenario: Juan on base, or DLee at the plate. Walk, Barrett, Murton and Cedeno are hitting the crap out of the ball, to a large degree negating typical slow starts by Aramis and Jones. The Cardinals are beatable; so are the Astros. The division is wide open.
But now that we lost Lee, the 2006 season will not be an easy one.
His 2005 break-out was not a surprise for attentive baseball fans. Over the last four years, he has devoloped a ferocious stroke at the plate, without succumbing to the swing-for-it-all instincts which plagued recent Cubs power hitters. (No need to name them; life goes on.) DLee sees a ton of pitches, takes a lot of walks, and poses a legitimate base stealing threat. First basemen have reached the 30 homer-30 steal plateau only twice in baseball history: Joe Carter in 1987, and Jeff Bagwell in 1999. DLee's still got the potential to become the third member of that excusive club, but it's not gonna happen in 2006. From that point of view, the game of baseball was robbed by Furcal playing football and Eyre playing God-knows-what.
It is terrible to remind you all of it, but this injury marks the effective end of the summer before it got a chance to get going. Your typical North Sider relates the summer sun, fields of green, and his sense of community with Wrigley Field. When the Cubs are in conention, the city crackles. When the Cubs are bad, life somehow takes on a little less shine.
Rather than make a roadtrip to Minneapolis or Cincy to watch the Cubbies, I'm more inclined to see a couple more Panic shows. I'll still make it to 25-30 games, maybe one at Milwaukee and another at Comiskey, but I won't be as rabid as I might be if we really had a shot. The sad fact of the matter is, we're pretty screwed without Lee.
You don't want to make too much of the first game without him, but let's look at tonight's lineup:
Pierre L 8
Hairston 4
Walker L 3
Ramirez 5
Barrett 2
Jones L 9
Murton 7
Cedeno 6
Williams 1
The Cubs played pretty okay tonight, considering that they started two second basemen on the right side and didn't have much of a power presence in the 3-hole. But Hairston and Ramirez worked their way onto base, and Barrett got all of a high fastball from Mark Mulder. A fifth inning three-run jack would normally serve to inspire a bench, considering the circumstances. Unfortunately, Williams allowed 7 runs in the first two innings, negating the impact of Barrett's home run.
The only way the Cubs can survive the DLee set back -- and this is a huge improbability -- is if the following occur:
1. Jones gets over his nagging hamstring and hits third or fifth regularly. This matchup stuff is driving me crazy.
2. Barrett keeps up his current pace, setting career marks in all offensive categories, which is unlikely to happen. His defense is a question; they just run on him. Combine Barrett's bat and Blanco's arm, and you've got the best catcher in the league. Unfortunately, you can start one or the other.
3. Ramirez returns to 40 homer-100 RBI form in the next week, at the latest.
4. Two of the three disabled starters -- Wood, Prior, Miller -- come back with Cy Young-potential stuff.
5. Maddux and the bullpen continue to post ERAs under 2, and Zambrano gets some run support, a wider strike zone, and a Xanax prescription. It's time he learns to chill out and start being a professional. You don't see Johann Santana or Chris Carpenter jumping around like morons, and the umpires resent his antics.
This next week is going to be tough. They have 2 more against the Cards, and three against Milwaukee. The remainder of the schedule through May is more or less a stinking joke. Thankfully, the Cubs have to play most of the NL West as well as the AAAA Marlins. If the Cubs came wrap up May 10 games over .500, which is admittedly quite a stretch, they will be in good shape -- not great shape, just good shape. For the June schedule makes me want to hide under my bed, because we face the best of the NL East and AL Central. If they manage to limp to the Fourth of July hovering over .500, it will take as much luck as talent. And, if they are capable of pulling off this feat without their superstar, I'd say they're shoo-ins for a playoff spot. I sure as hell hope so, but it doesn't look good.
The Cubs played really well during the first three weeks. Lee was off to another great start: 10 RBIs, 14 runs, 5 steals, and, at times, mind-bogglingly stellar defense. The pitching held up better than anyone would have expected. When Pierre got on, pitchers and catchers couldn't decide which was a scarier scenario: Juan on base, or DLee at the plate. Walk, Barrett, Murton and Cedeno are hitting the crap out of the ball, to a large degree negating typical slow starts by Aramis and Jones. The Cardinals are beatable; so are the Astros. The division is wide open.
But now that we lost Lee, the 2006 season will not be an easy one.
His 2005 break-out was not a surprise for attentive baseball fans. Over the last four years, he has devoloped a ferocious stroke at the plate, without succumbing to the swing-for-it-all instincts which plagued recent Cubs power hitters. (No need to name them; life goes on.) DLee sees a ton of pitches, takes a lot of walks, and poses a legitimate base stealing threat. First basemen have reached the 30 homer-30 steal plateau only twice in baseball history: Joe Carter in 1987, and Jeff Bagwell in 1999. DLee's still got the potential to become the third member of that excusive club, but it's not gonna happen in 2006. From that point of view, the game of baseball was robbed by Furcal playing football and Eyre playing God-knows-what.
It is terrible to remind you all of it, but this injury marks the effective end of the summer before it got a chance to get going. Your typical North Sider relates the summer sun, fields of green, and his sense of community with Wrigley Field. When the Cubs are in conention, the city crackles. When the Cubs are bad, life somehow takes on a little less shine.
Rather than make a roadtrip to Minneapolis or Cincy to watch the Cubbies, I'm more inclined to see a couple more Panic shows. I'll still make it to 25-30 games, maybe one at Milwaukee and another at Comiskey, but I won't be as rabid as I might be if we really had a shot. The sad fact of the matter is, we're pretty screwed without Lee.
You don't want to make too much of the first game without him, but let's look at tonight's lineup:
Pierre L 8
Hairston 4
Walker L 3
Ramirez 5
Barrett 2
Jones L 9
Murton 7
Cedeno 6
Williams 1
The Cubs played pretty okay tonight, considering that they started two second basemen on the right side and didn't have much of a power presence in the 3-hole. But Hairston and Ramirez worked their way onto base, and Barrett got all of a high fastball from Mark Mulder. A fifth inning three-run jack would normally serve to inspire a bench, considering the circumstances. Unfortunately, Williams allowed 7 runs in the first two innings, negating the impact of Barrett's home run.
The only way the Cubs can survive the DLee set back -- and this is a huge improbability -- is if the following occur:
1. Jones gets over his nagging hamstring and hits third or fifth regularly. This matchup stuff is driving me crazy.
2. Barrett keeps up his current pace, setting career marks in all offensive categories, which is unlikely to happen. His defense is a question; they just run on him. Combine Barrett's bat and Blanco's arm, and you've got the best catcher in the league. Unfortunately, you can start one or the other.
3. Ramirez returns to 40 homer-100 RBI form in the next week, at the latest.
4. Two of the three disabled starters -- Wood, Prior, Miller -- come back with Cy Young-potential stuff.
5. Maddux and the bullpen continue to post ERAs under 2, and Zambrano gets some run support, a wider strike zone, and a Xanax prescription. It's time he learns to chill out and start being a professional. You don't see Johann Santana or Chris Carpenter jumping around like morons, and the umpires resent his antics.
This next week is going to be tough. They have 2 more against the Cards, and three against Milwaukee. The remainder of the schedule through May is more or less a stinking joke. Thankfully, the Cubs have to play most of the NL West as well as the AAAA Marlins. If the Cubs came wrap up May 10 games over .500, which is admittedly quite a stretch, they will be in good shape -- not great shape, just good shape. For the June schedule makes me want to hide under my bed, because we face the best of the NL East and AL Central. If they manage to limp to the Fourth of July hovering over .500, it will take as much luck as talent. And, if they are capable of pulling off this feat without their superstar, I'd say they're shoo-ins for a playoff spot. I sure as hell hope so, but it doesn't look good.
posted by Pat at 11:28 PM
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